samedi 5 novembre 2011

Attachez vos ceintures

La bombe ne vient pas du G-vain evidemment...

Pour cause de manque de liquidité sur les marchés des futures, le CME (wiki english) va augmenter ses marges massivement à partir de lundi. C'est confirmé.

Apparemment ils veulent éviter par là les collapses à la MF Global, mais il se pourrait qu'ils provoquent l'effet contraire, la dégringolade des cours provoquant des méga-pertes.

D'un autre coté, ça concerne aussi bien les shorts que les longs. Durden est ptêt bien en train de semer la panique pour rien. On verra bien.

CME Goes To Collateral DefCon 1: Makes Maintenance Margin Equal To Initial For... Everything!?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2011 - 21:20

The most important news announcement of the day was not anything to came out of Cannes (as nothing did), nor from Greece (the merry go round farce there continues unabated). No, it was a brief paragraph distributed by the CME long after everyone had gone home, and was already on their 3rd drink. It is critical, because not only is this announcement a direct consequence of what happened with MF Global several days ago, but because also it confirms one of our biggest concerns: systemic liquidity is non-existanet. We confirmed interbank liquidity in Europe was at an all time low earlier today, and can only assume the same is true for US banks. But what is very disturbing is that this is just as true at the exchange level, where it appears the aftermath of the MF collapse is just now being felt. What exactly was the announcement. Unless we are completely reading it incorrectly, it is nothing short of a margin call for tens if not hundreds of billions worth of product. Because as of close of business on November 4, today, the CME just made the maintenance margin, traditionally about 26% lower than the initial margin for specs, equal. For everything . Which means that by close of business Monday, millions of options and futures holders will be forced to deposit billions in additional capital to the CME just so they are not found to be margin deficient, and thus receive a margin call. Naturally, since it is very unlikely that this incremental amount of liquidity can be easily procured in one business day, we anticipate the issuance of hundreds of thousands of margin calls Monday, followed by forced liquidations of margin accounts across America... and the world. Just like when Lehman blew up, it took 5 days for Money Markets to break. Is this unprecedented elimination in the distinction between initial and maintenance margin the post-MF equivalent of the first domino to fall this time around?

Aucun commentaire:

Enregistrer un commentaire

Le blog est fermé. Allez sur la nouvelle rubrique des moutons écrasés (la suite)

Remarque : Seul un membre de ce blog est autorisé à enregistrer un commentaire.