lundi 26 septembre 2011

Disneyland veut "sauver" Euroland

Excellent article du Telegraph (25.9.11), ici en entier....
Les marchés ont l'air d'y croire.... pas moi! (Geithner non plus, à mon avis)
Ils espèrent encore gagner une semaine??

La Bourse de Paris accélérait sa progression lundi à la mi-journée, soutenue par l'envolée du secteur bancaire, alors que des rumeurs évoquent une recapitalisation de certains établissements et qu'une semaine cruciale s'ouvre pour tenter d'avancer dans le dossier de la dette. Boursorama

Geithner Plan for Europe is last chance to avoid global catastrophe

Europe, the G20, and the global authorities have one last chance to contain the EMU debt crisis with a nuclear solution or abdicate responsibility and watch as the world slides into depression, endangering the benign but fragile order that has taken shape over the last three decades.

The threat of cascading default, bank runs, and catastrophic risk must be taken off the table," said US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner over the weekend.

"Sovereign and banking stresses in Europe are the most serious risk now confronting the world economy. Decisions cannot wait until the crisis gets more severe."

Euroland's dysfunctional arrangements are no longer a local affair. As the European Central Bank's Jean-Claude Trichet said in Washington, EMU is at the epicentre of a global sovereign debt crisis that risks engulfing all, and is more intractable than 2008 because governments themselves are now crippled.

China, India, Brazil and the world's rising powers will not escape lightly this time if leaders let events spiral out of control. European banks have lent $3.4 trillion to emerging markets (BIS data), or three quarters of external loans to these countries.

The International Monetary Fund warned last week that emerging markets face the risk of "sharp reversals" or even a "sudden stop" if there is further spill-over from Europe. This comes at a time when Asia and parts of Latin America are already in the topping phase of a credit boom, one of epic proportions in China where loans have doubled to almost 200pc of GDP over the last five years.

Warning signs have been flashing red for the last three weeks. Shares of China's top property developer Greentown have crashed by a third this month. The currencies of Indonesia, Brazil, Korea, South Africa, and Hungary have all buckled, and central banks have begun intervening to stop the slide. "A continued flight from risk raises the growing possibility of investor capitulation in emerging markets," said Neil Mellor from BNY Mellon.

The reserve powers would be well advised to pull out all the stops to save Europe and its banking system. Together they hold $10 trillion in foreign bonds. If they agreed to rotate just 4pc of these holdings ($400bn) into Spanish, Italian, and Belgian debt over the next two years, they could offer a soothing balm. None has yet risen to the challenge. It is `sauve qui peut', with no evidence of G20 leadership in sight.

Once again, the US has had to take charge. The multi-trillion package now taking shape for Euroland was largely concocted in Washington, in cahoots with the European Commission, and is being imposed on Germany by the full force of American diplomacy.

It is an ugly and twisted set of proposals, devised to accommodate Berlin's refusal to accept fiscal union, Eurobonds, and an EU treasury. But at least it is big.

The EU's €440bn bail-out fund (EFSF) will be "leveraged" from €440bn to €2 trillion to cope with Italy and Spain. The fund will assume an "equity" stake of 20pc or so in holdings of EMU debt, supported by loans of 80pc from the European Central Bank.

Commercial banks that cannot raise money from Mid-East wealth funds will be seized by the state, partly or fully, or be recapitalized by the EFSF. This should leave them strong enough to absorb a 50pc default imposed on Greece, and potential knock-on defaults in Portugal and Ireland.

Or at least, that is the idea. We will see how the Bundestag reacts this week. It has not even voted on the July deal to boost the powers of the EFSF, itself a furiously contested plan that may provoke a 30-strong rebellion within Chancellor Angela Merkel's own coalition. German lawmakers now learn that implicit liabilities may be five times as big.

"We should not think of leveraging a public pot of funds as a free lunch," said

Ireland's central bank governor Patrick Honohan. Indeed not. The details of this financial engineering have a familiar ring to those who remember the `CDOs' and other instruments of structured disguise before the subprime debacle. The bill comes due.

We will see too whether France is willing to swallow national pride and confront its own financial elite. Christian Noyer, the Bank of France's governor, denied on Sunday that French officials were mulling a capital injection of up to €15bn to beef up banks.

"There is no plan, and we don't need one. The banks are very solid. None of them is hiding any toxic assets," he said.

What is the point of uttering such rubbish? The markets know this is untrue, and so does the IMF. It is an almost surreal refusal to recognize that investors are - for good reasons - terrified about French bank exposure to Italian sovereign debt. Mr Noyer encapsulates the mixture of stubborness and amour propre now threatening the world with disaster, and which is so like the French reflex as everything collapsed in mid-1931. Funny how they never change.

Even if the €2 trillion "Geithner Plan" does get off the ground, it can do no more than buy time - not to be sneezed at, for sure. The root of the euro crisis is a 30pc intra-EMU currency misalignment between North and South. That structural flaw cannot be solved with debt guarantees or bank rescues.

Nor can this gap in competitiveness be bridged by austerity alone, by pushing Club Med deeper into debt-deflation and perma-slump. Such a strategy must slowly eat away at Italian and Spanish society, undercutting the whole purpose of the EU Project. It would ultimately risk trapping them in a debt spiral aswell, leading to collosal losses for Germany in the end.

The Geithner Plan must be accompanied by a monetary blitz, since the fiscal card is largely exhausted and Germany refuses to lower its savings rate to rebalance the EMU system. The only plausible option is for the ECB to let rip with unsterilized bond purchases on a mass scale, with a treaty change in the bank's mandate to target jobs and growth.

This would weaken the euro, giving a lifeline to southern manufacturers competing with China. It would engineer an inflationary mini-boom in Germany, forcing up relative German costs within EMU. That would be the beginning of a solution, albeit a bad one.

Sorry Deutschland. History has conspired against you, again. You must sign away €2 trillion, and debauch your central bank, and accept 5pc inflation, or be blamed for Götterdämmerung. It is not fair but that is what monetary union always meant. Didn't they tell you?

18 commentaires:

  1. Bon ça va, tous les vendredi tu nous annonces l’effondrement et le lundi tu nous annonces des corrections techniques sur les marchés pour un effondrement vendredi prochain. C'est pas pour maintenant, les indicateurs ne présage pas l effondrement pour maintenant, je répète retour des hostilités fin décembre, début Janvier!!!!!

  2. j'annonce un danger de crash bancaire, qui existe, et qui est encore là, et je dénonce les mensonges faits pour retarder l'effondrement.
    Personne ne sait quand ca va péter, ou plutot à quelle vitesse, on est en plein dedans.
    Il est ou ton problème?

  3. effondrement oui indéniablement, quand? pas tout de suite du tout, là tu trompes, je n'ai pas de problème, c'est juste que de semaine en semaine ton blog est un copié collé de la semaine d'avant. Change de disque où essaye de comprendre pourquoi l'or baisse par exemple, ou pourquoi les valeurs bancaires remontent en ce moment même, les paliers baissier ou haussier, tu répètes depuis un certains temps que ça va crasher, cela devient lassant, tu me diras certainement que tu ne m'obliges pas à te lire, le problème c'est que j'aime beaucoup ton blog!!! Bonne journée Cassandre.

  4. si tu lisais au lieu de raconter des conneries tu saurais.

  5. Moi j'aime bien les poissons sur la gauche de l'ecran.

  6. tu leur as donné à manger? (klik de souris)

  7. Ce n'est pas le blog de madame Irmaha, donc il est difficile de dire quand va commencer la grande glisse.

    Cela étant, il suffit de lire ce titre :

    où il est dit que l'état en votant le plan d'aides en septembre dernier "qui va entraîner une hausse de l'endettement de la France d'environ 15 milliards d'euros d'ici 2014."

    où encore l'article parlant du plan secret pour recapitaliser les banques d'au moins dix milliards , pour comprendre qu'on ne fait qu'additionner des milliards de dettes pour retarder l'inévitable.

  8. Cela étant, octobre pour des raisons que j'ai déjà développé sera le mois de tout les dangers.

    j'ai des donner des euros à tes poissons, n'en veulent pas !

  9. "si tu lisais au lieu de raconter des conneries tu saurais."

    j'avoue, c'est pertinent, je crois qu'en fait il me faut des lunettes désolé "Madame"

  10. La question RESTE : pourquoi ils ne fabriquent pas du nouvel argent-papier, juste pour/le temps d'éponger leurs lieu d'utiliser le notre !

    Serait-ce pour réduire nos moyens d'action et de (sur)-vie ? :-)

  11. l'inflation est mauvaise pour les banques (puisque leurs clients remborusent leurs dettes avec de l'argent qui ne vaut plus rien)

  12. Je suis actuellement paye en dollars (ce qui ne vaut pas grand chose), je pense que je vais attendre un peu avant de changer ca en euros (ou en ecus, qui sait?)...

  13. @ Maha

    Ce ne serait PAS de l'inflation,cet argent-papier serait destiné exclusivement à l'usage du remboursement inter-banques ou entre les gros bidules, et NON pour le marché des consommateurs....
    bref, juste pour pouvoir nettoyer les bilans et cie.
    après, on le brûle, ou ils le font disparaitre comme ils l'ont déjà fait.

    Chuis bon, là ??

  14. "autant effacer direct "

    non, paske ce ne serait pas conforme aux lois du "marché" :)

    ici, la démarche est parfaitement dans les règles, respecte le jeu tout en le poussant ds ses retranchements mais personne n'aurait à y redire puisque ce sont ses principes-mêmes qui seraient appliqués là et rien d'autre....

    Ok ?
    On fait comme ça ? lol
    Et on arrête de perdre son temps à compter les mouches, on re-passe à la vraie vie quoi.


Le blog est fermé. Allez sur la nouvelle rubrique des moutons écrasés (la suite)

Remarque : Seul un membre de ce blog est autorisé à enregistrer un commentaire.